Description

A proprietary trading and investment firm focused on prediction markets and event-driven opportunities is seeking a highly analytical and intellectually curious Prediction Markets Trader to join its growing team. The firm combines rigorous research, probabilistic thinking, and disciplined execution to identify and capitalize on opportunities across a broad range of markets.

This role is ideal for individuals who enjoy making forecasts, evaluating uncertainty, and developing an edge in markets where information, probabilities, and timing matter.

Key Responsibilities

1. Research and analyze prediction markets across politics, economics, business, technology, sports, and current events.
2. Develop independent forecasts and probability assessments for market outcomes.
3. Identify mispriced opportunities and execute trades in accordance with established risk management guidelines.
4. Monitor breaking news, market developments, public data, and other information that may impact event probabilities.
5. Track positions, evaluate performance, and document investment theses.
6. Collaborate with team members to discuss forecasts, challenge assumptions, and improve decision-making processes.
7. Build and refine research methodologies, models, and tools to improve forecasting accuracy.
8. Maintain discipline in position sizing, risk management, and capital allocation.

Qualifications

1. Strong analytical, quantitative, and critical-thinking skills.
2. Demonstrated interest in prediction markets, trading, investing, forecasting, or decision-making under uncertainty.
3. Ability to synthesize information from multiple sources and reach independent conclusions.
4. Excellent attention to detail and commitment to intellectual honesty.
5. Strong written and verbal communication skills.
6. Ability to work effectively both independently
7. Experience trading prediction markets, financial markets, sports betting, poker, or other probability-driven environments.
8. Background in finance, economics, mathematics, statistics, computer science, data science, political science, or a related field.
9. Demonstrated ability to make accurate forecasts or profitable trading decisions.
10. Understanding of probability theory, expected value, market dynamics, and risk management principles.
11. Python, C++ or Rust familiarity
12. Experience with Claude